There is a modern world. The unpalatable truth must be faced.

Who will win the US election?

  • Joe Biden, and this is not what I would have chosen

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Take your metaphorical clipboard out of my face and shove it up your arse

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Other (explain, preferably in rhyming couplets)

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    12

Etaoin Shrdlu

μεσσηγυδορποχέστης
We can all be virtual US citizens, so get out there and vote! You can even commit fraud by registering new identities, though I'd hope that most of our members, even if not constrained by moral considerations, would refrain from such activity because they had better things to do with their lives.

Bonus points for anyone who recognises the allusion in the thread title.
 

Bitmap

Civis Illustris
The answer "No idea, but ..." doesn't really make sense -- or, well, you could also say it makes too much sense to be an answer. Pretty much nobody has an idea how it will go at this point. It's still fun to make predictions.

To add some spice, you can make your own prediction at


I'm not actually getting paid to say this. I just think it's a nice tool to play around. Apart from that, it has some prediction models based on current polls. Would be nice to see some predictions :)

I'm also mentioning it because I will mention 2 predictions based on official polls in my next post.
 

Bitmap

Civis Illustris
This is the "2020 Consensus" from 27 October on 270towin, whatever that consensus may be ...

Opera Momentaufnahme_2020-10-29_054629_www.270towin.com.png


This is Polling Map ... (the most up-to-date prediction they seem to have)

Opera Momentaufnahme_2020-10-29_054700_www.270towin.com.png


If the second map is true and Texas is a toss-up, I don't see how this race could even be close. It would be a Biden landslide. It's not just that Trump would be in danger of losing the 38 electoral votes from Texas; it would also mean that he has essentially lost the support of his entire base, and that probably throughout the country. I find it extremely hard to imagine a scenario where he could lose TX and make up for that in the rest of the country ... or even a scenario in which Texas is only a very close win for Republicans.
 

Etaoin Shrdlu

μεσσηγυδορποχέστης
I haven't done one of those maps because I don't know enough about individual states to make it more than a colouring exercise, and I haven't lived in the US in several centuries. The one thing I will say is that I can't imagine Arizona voting for Biden, given that it take an exception like Bush the Elder to make them go Democrat.
 

Bitmap

Civis Illustris
I think that would be an extremely unlikely scenario for Texas, though.
It's true that Cruz *only* beat Beto by 52-48 in the 2018 Senate race ... but it was a race in which Democrats MASSIVELY outspent Republicans. The 2018 gubertorial race went solidly red with about 56-42.
I also don't really like reasoning along the lines of "if A is true, why doesn't B do C?" -- but in this case, it really doesn't seem to be an absurd question to ask why Biden didn't spend more effort on campaigning in Texas IF the race is actually close there.

The polls show some other weird anomalies that are in contradiction with each other ... A random list of facts and thoughts:
- If the exit polls of 2016 are correct and are modelled to the current demographic of the US, Trump would lose
- Many polls show Biden ahead beyond 1st turn Obama levels. I have recently seen a poll showing a Biden win in Wisconsin by a margin of 17%. Not even Obama got that in 2008. Who is supposed to believe such polls?
- I have seen polls that give Trump 13% of the black demographic; some give him even more. He gained 8% in 2016 (doesn't sound like much, but it's a lot for a Republican, actually). I have seen other polls which have his hispanic vote at something like 33% or more (up to 40, I think). He had 29% in 2016.
- If that's true, these few percentage points would be a massive gain among minorities -- in ways that there is no realistic scenario for a Democrat to win. Trump might actually have lost some of the white vote, but such a gain amongst hispanics and blacks would more than offset that.
- There is no world in which Trump wins like 15% of the black vote and Biden beats him, not even in the popular vote. Some part of that prediction has to be wrong.
- There was a Rasmussen poll from September which asked people "Are you doing better now than you did 4 years ago?" I think Trump received 56% approval there. That's (a lot) more than Obama 2012, Bush 2004, Clinton 1996 and Reagan 1984. And it was asked amidst this pandemic. If this is true, there is no way people won't vote for Trump.
- The polls and analyses are weighed in weird ways. Trump's approval amongst Republicans is currently at 94%, so it's not unreasonable to believe that at least 85-90% of R voters will actually vote for him. Yet, some pollsters (like Rasmussen, I think -- weirdly enough) expect him to get only 75% of the Republican vote. That would be Bush43 levels of 1992. I think they have Biden at something like 85 or 87 ...
 
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Bitmap

Civis Illustris
- The 2020 Consensus is essentially Biden's winning scenario (unless Polling Map is right, in which case he will win in a landslide and shouldn't bother, anyway). He needs to carry PA, MI, WI and MN (and/or AZ).
- Early voting data doesn't seem to suggest much of an edge in PA, MI, WI, AZ ... but I don't know ... we'll see.
- This is what I think is currently going on:

Opera Momentaufnahme_2020-10-29_130801_www.270towin.com.png


And this is what I'd predict at the moment if Republicans do turn out in the expected numbers on ED ... although I have to admit that I'm only giving Trump Minnesota because it would be a real shocker (given that not even Reagan managed to win it):

Opera Momentaufnahme_2020-10-29_131115_www.270towin.com.png
 

Bitmap

Civis Illustris
I don't know enough about individual states to make it more than a colouring exercise
Neither do I :> But I thought colouring exercises are what this thread is about.

The one thing I will say is that I can't imagine Arizona voting for Biden, given that it take an exception like Bush the Elder to make them go Democrat.
What could actually happen in AZ is that the EC vote goes red and the senate seat goes blue. (In the sense of what could happen realistically)

If I had a vote I would cast it for this lady. Between those other two, it seems to me that Trump is less bad.
I would vote for Trump and I think he's better than all the alternatives.
 

Michael Zwingli

Active Member
The United States has lost sight of its first principle(s), its inaugural ideal, to wit: "liberty" (keeping government, whether said government be by a king or a congress, from interfering, as far and as widely and as deeply as is possible, in the personal and business affairs of the citizenry, which ideal is is mutually exclusive, I feel compelled to note, with the (socialist) ideal of ensuring equity in society (which is largely the business of justice), for if I am compelled by the government to share a significant portion of my income, no matter how large that income is, with the less fortunate, then my liberty is infringed upon, and I am not a relatively free man). I am unsure whether to consider this to be good or bad. Of course, neither equity nor liberty are bad things of themselves, but they do infringe one upon the other within the social context. Finding and maintaining a desired mean between liberty and justice is the essential task of government, and that mean varies between those two polarities depending on the essential nature and focus of the government in question. Without doubt, the mean intended by the English colonists who rebelled against King George, tended towards liberty rather than justice. Neither the Democrats nor the Republicans seem to wish to revisit or recognize that. The Democratic Party platform has largely been arrogated by the "equity" people: the "progressive" liberals. The Republican Party has of late become much more nationalist and populist in nature, than it once was, and so tend to favor only a liberty tainted by a nationalist ethic which results in a type of "turning inward" of society. The Libertarians cannot, and seemingly will not, gain traction. My personal outlook is a bit bleak for our political and fiscal future. We have been bolstered by hubris, and the bloated federal government (the task of maintaining a mean closer to justice than to liberty requires bigger, "fatter", more extensive and more intrusive government than does the task of maintaining a mean closer to liberty than to justice) continues blithely to spend beyond its means, and then to borrow so that it may spend more, but a massive default upon our absolutely incredible national debt looms menacingly, and then what: tyranny? an orgy of taxation to pay for it? or, alternatively, war with our creditor countries? Note that neither Trump nor Biden will worry about this: Trump because, despite not appearing to be the brightest bulb in the box and having a rather coarse personality, has been able, using daddy's seed money and through having both an apparently strong physical constitution and a somewhat callous personal outlook, to enrich himself through real estate speculation (this can hardly fail); Biden because he has seemingly been able to enrich himself in "the old politician's way": by graft, more lately appearing to use his son as a type of "fence" (this, likewise, can hardly fail). I don't have to worry about my vote, though, or indeed, even about voting at all, unless I feel passionate about one of the ballot questions: I live in Massachusetts, and the outcome here is, as ever, a foregone conclusion...

My goodness, what are these ramblings? This has become a polemic...hey, somebody help me down off this soapbox!
 
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Terry S.

Quaestor
Staff member
I try strenuously to avoid getting involved in politics, especially of other countries where I scarcely understand the beginnings of who's who, and what's what. My vote above does, however, invite a brief explanation. If I had a vote in the USA I'd feel obliged to vote for Trump since he courts the pro-life vote and seemingly comes up with the goods. Joe Biden & Co. appear to me to be hell bent on continuing and expanding the organised killing of unborn babies. That's the beginning and end of my views on the subject.
 

Bitmap

Civis Illustris
The Supreme Court has ruled 5-3 against extending the voting deadline in Wisconsin. Ballots that arrive after ED will not be counted:

 

Bitmap

Civis Illustris
From that article:

Opera Momentaufnahme_2020-10-31_072746_www.bbc.com.png


Opera Momentaufnahme_2020-10-30_190731_www.bbc.com.png
 
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Bitmap

Civis Illustris
In other words, this would be the election map they are currently predicting (assuming they take NE-2 and ME-2 as blue):

Opera Momentaufnahme_2020-10-30_192023_www.270towin.com.png


In other words, if Ohio and Arizona also go to Joe Biden, he would beat Trump by a popular vote margin that is 1.8% higher than Obama's margin in 2008 and by a bigger margin in the Electoral College.

Opera Momentaufnahme_2020-10-30_192616_www.bbc.com.png


-- In other words, Biden will win by FDR margins.
 
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